BTC has had a respectable $13K range since our last report. The market made a new all-time high, but was unable to maintain the momentum and crashed in a violent weekend session. We wrote in our previous commentary, “Ideally, we are still targeting the $68,000–70,000 level on this move. Given that the stochastics is getting in the overbought territory, it would be a reasonable level to take profit or short the market, depending on your positioning.” The market disappointed us by not testing the top of the rising channel, instead reversing earlier than we expected.
Hopefully, our readers were nimbler…
Following recent coal mine accidents, China instituted blackouts for a “comprehensive power outage safety inspection.” This has resulted in observed Hashrate crashing to under 100EH/s, compared with a target Hashrate of ~169EH/s. This drove Transaction Fees (Tx fees) up to 23% of total miner rewards as the falling block count led to increased network congestion.
This dynamic contributed to a 5.9% week on week (WoW) decline in BTC price. Bitcoin reached an all-time-high of ~$63,500 midweek, and is currently trading at $55,300 as of this writing.
We estimate that lost Hashrate took more than 2GW of mining capacity offline and…
BTC is up by approximately $8000 since our last commentary. More importantly, it held the fast-ascending trendline that was tested on April 7 and made a new high. Ideally, we are still targeting $68,000–70,000 level on this move. Given that the stochastics is getting in the overbought territory, it would be a reasonable level to take profit or short the market, depending on your positioning.
The move comes after nearly 2 weeks of sideways action. The realized 15-day volatility is down to 49% from 58%. …
BTC has had a very uneventful week, as the market kept a tight $5000 range. We still think we may get another dash at the fast-rising trendline (now around $68,000), but we are keeping stops close in case the support line brakes to the downside.
15-day realized volatility has tanked to 58% from 72.5%. Surprisingly, only the front options took a beating, with June and September Implied Vol (IV) staying strong. Skew changes are all over the place. April calls are down and puts up (to the point that April calls are now relatively attractive vs. straddles). In June, both…
Bitcoin gained 7.6% week on week (WoW), recovering from a recent dip to ~$52,000 back to $58,685 as of midnight UTC on 3/30. PayPal recently announced support for submitting payments with crypto, in essence allowing purchases via BTC, ETH, BCH, and LTC.
Total BTC earnings per PH/s are ~6.36mBTC, up from ~6.23mBTC / PH/s last week on increased Tx fees. (1mBTC or milliBTC = 1/1000 BTC.) Transaction fees (Tx fees) rose 193 bps WoW to 9.6% of miner rewards, as we see moderate congestion in the “Mempool,” with 60k pending transactions.
Bitcoin mining revenue reached $373/ PH/s per day and…
The BTC market had a whipsaw week. After bottoming around $50K, the price is back close to all-time highs. The pace of the fast-rising trendline has been hard to maintain. However, if we are to try to follow it again, the $67K-$68K region is the next natural target. If stochastics is overbought when we get there, it could be a good entry for a tactical short. Overall, the bull trend has been consistently strong. We are beginning to wonder if the slow moving trendline is going to be revisited soon. It would be healthy for the rally to take a…
The BTC market has gone sideways in the two weeks since our last Volatility report. The market made a new high of $61750 but was unable to hold the gains and is back below the fast-rising trendline that defined this move since early December 2020.
As the market struggles with the speed of ascent, we wonder when we will see a pull back to a more slowly rising trendline that is currently around $30000. Realized 15-day volatility has come down to 76.5% from 112%. It put pressure on option prices throughout maturities. This is the lowest IV’s we have seen…
Bitcoin gained 17.3% week on week (WoW), reaching an all-time high of $61,289 before dropping to $59,906 at midnight UTC on 3/14, continuing down to about $57,000 at the time of writing.
Total BTC earnings per PH/s are ~6.39mBTC, down from ~6.42mBTC / PH/s last week on slightly lower Tx fees. (1mBTC or milliBTC = 1/1000 BTC.) Transaction Fees (Tx fees) fell 115 bps WoW to 8.3% of miner rewards, as we see moderate congestion in the “Mempool,” with 60k pending transactions. 154 blocks mined in the past 24 hours are consistent with a ~4–5% difficulty increase at the next…
Despite a few weeks’ hiatus from our regular regulatory assessments, we at BitOoda have continued to monitor and engage in the continued advancement of the U.S. regulatory landscape. Among recent developments we have followed are:
· New York Attorney General Letitia James’ industry alert on registration requirements and accompanying press release stating “you either play by the rules or we will shut you down,” a clear indication of continued regulatory tightening in New York (further evidenced by the NYAG’s settlement with Bitfinex and Tether that ended their New York operations).
· Statements by Gary Gensler (whose nomination for SEC Chair…
BTC is up $6000 over the last week. The market has worked off the overbought conditions that brought us to the $58K high and is currently retesting a very steep short term trendline from the downside.
The basis (contango) is back to more typical levels (spot to March around $390) and March/April to $600. There is less beta in the basis trade than what we have observed. We wonder if some of the carry trades have been connected to GBTC premium to NAV turning negative (currently in the -4.5% range, see https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/crypto-markets/grayscale ). Rumors abound connecting borrowing activities in BTC…
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