2021 Year End Bitcoin Hashpower Estimates: Raising to 198 EH/s; Updating Cost Curve, Mining Costs and Mining Reserve Estimates

BitOoda is pleased to publish our 2021 year-end Bitcoin Hashpower estimates. Please click here to access the report, 2021 Year End Bitcoin Hashpower Estimates: Raising to 198 EH/s; Updating Cost Curve, Mining Costs and Mining Reserve Estimates.

A key factor determining investment returns from Bitcoin mining is an estimate of future Hashrate and difficulty, and their impact on miner revenue in BTC terms. Revenue in USD terms leads to realized Hashrate, which drives investment payback periods and profitability.

With this report, we raise our year end 2021 Hashrate estimate to 198EH/s (from 145 EH/s in July 2021) as capacity appears to be coming back online faster than expected — risks remain skewed to the upside. We also update our cost curve to estimate a $40/MWh median power cost for the Bitcoin network. Finally, while we do not forecast Bitcoin price, we examine a number of price, revenue and profitability scenarios, influenced by ranges of revenue per PH/s per day, and factoring lowered Transaction Fee estimates and thus a lower “Mining Reserve” of 5 BTC per PH/s and 171 BTC / MW operating continuously over the rest of the decade.

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