The BTC market is continuing its consolidation pattern. $30,000 has proved to be a support level for now. The slow ascending trendline has not provided much needed support. The psychology of the levered players is shifting too. The front basis has turned negative (June contract is trading under spot). In the past, the basis has flipped in panic bottoms — this feels a bit more orderly and consistent.

15-day realized volatility has continued to taper to 88% from 126%. Consolidation has put some pressure on implied volatility, but traders are not giving up on movement yet. Call skew is slightly…


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