Bitcoin rose 3% week on week (WoW), reaching $58,288 as of 5/9 at midnight UTC. The network tracked 186 blocks mined yesterday, maintaining levels over 170 through most of the week. The upcoming difficulty reset will see a large increase in target Hashrate, possibly to new all-time highs.

Total BTC earnings per PH/s are ~6.47mBTC, down from ~6.55mBTC / PH/s last week on decreased Transaction fees (Tx fees). (1mBTC or milliBTC = 1/1000 BTC.) Tx fees fell 121 bps WoW to 5.6% of miner rewards, as we see low congestion levels in the “Mempool” driven by the high block count.


Bitcoin rose 15.6% week on week (WoW), recovering back to $56,573 as of 5/2 at midnight UTC. The difficulty reset on Saturday saw a 12.7% decline to 20.61 T, or 147 EH/s in target Hashrate, due to the impact of the recent Chinese outage on the epoch’s average block time. Hash has recovered, however, and is currently at a 190EH/s level, signifying a large increase in target Hashrate to a new all time high if the 181 blocks mined yesterday represent a sustained pace of mining.

Total BTC earnings per PH/s are ~6.55mBTC, up from ~6.03mBTC / PH/s last week…


An industry CEO during a recent webinar said that the crypto regulatory landscape was “catching up” with the development of an increasingly sophisticated market infrastructure. We couldn’t agree more. Reviewing regulatory developments in the past month — including statements from U.S. …


Bitcoin fell 4.2% week on week (WoW), recovering from a dip yesterday to ~$47,000 back to $53,450 at the time of writing. The network currently tracks 131 blocks mined in the last 24 hours and is on track to deliver a 14–16% difficulty decline at the upcoming reset this weekend. While observed Hashrate has recovered from last week’s lows, it still lags behind the prior difficulty epoch average, suggesting not all Hashrate has returned. …


BTC has had a respectable $13K range since our last report. The market made a new all-time high, but was unable to maintain the momentum and crashed in a violent weekend session. We wrote in our previous commentary, “Ideally, we are still targeting the $68,000–70,000 level on this move. Given that the stochastics is getting in the overbought territory, it would be a reasonable level to take profit or short the market, depending on your positioning.” The market disappointed us by not testing the top of the rising channel, instead reversing earlier than we expected.

Hopefully, our readers were nimbler…


Following recent coal mine accidents, China instituted blackouts for a “comprehensive power outage safety inspection.” This has resulted in observed Hashrate crashing to under 100EH/s, compared with a target Hashrate of ~169EH/s. This drove Transaction Fees (Tx fees) up to 23% of total miner rewards as the falling block count led to increased network congestion.

This dynamic contributed to a 5.9% week on week (WoW) decline in BTC price. Bitcoin reached an all-time-high of ~$63,500 midweek, and is currently trading at $55,300 as of this writing.

We estimate that lost Hashrate took more than 2GW of mining capacity offline and…


BTC is up by approximately $8000 since our last commentary. More importantly, it held the fast-ascending trendline that was tested on April 7 and made a new high. Ideally, we are still targeting $68,000–70,000 level on this move. Given that the stochastics is getting in the overbought territory, it would be a reasonable level to take profit or short the market, depending on your positioning.

The move comes after nearly 2 weeks of sideways action. The realized 15-day volatility is down to 49% from 58%. …


BTC has had a very uneventful week, as the market kept a tight $5000 range. We still think we may get another dash at the fast-rising trendline (now around $68,000), but we are keeping stops close in case the support line brakes to the downside.

15-day realized volatility has tanked to 58% from 72.5%. Surprisingly, only the front options took a beating, with June and September Implied Vol (IV) staying strong. Skew changes are all over the place. April calls are down and puts up (to the point that April calls are now relatively attractive vs. straddles). In June, both…


Bitcoin gained 7.6% week on week (WoW), recovering from a recent dip to ~$52,000 back to $58,685 as of midnight UTC on 3/30. PayPal recently announced support for submitting payments with crypto, in essence allowing purchases via BTC, ETH, BCH, and LTC.

Total BTC earnings per PH/s are ~6.36mBTC, up from ~6.23mBTC / PH/s last week on increased Tx fees. (1mBTC or milliBTC = 1/1000 BTC.) Transaction fees (Tx fees) rose 193 bps WoW to 9.6% of miner rewards, as we see moderate congestion in the “Mempool,” with 60k pending transactions.

Bitcoin mining revenue reached $373/ PH/s per day and…


The BTC market had a whipsaw week. After bottoming around $50K, the price is back close to all-time highs. The pace of the fast-rising trendline has been hard to maintain. However, if we are to try to follow it again, the $67K-$68K region is the next natural target. If stochastics is overbought when we get there, it could be a good entry for a tactical short. Overall, the bull trend has been consistently strong. We are beginning to wonder if the slow moving trendline is going to be revisited soon. It would be healthy for the rally to take a…

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