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Bitcoin Public Markets, 5/9/22: Macro Correlation Here to Stay — Hard Landing, Rig Price, Hashrate Risks Compound; We Seek Hedged Miners and Distressed Deals

The markets are digesting the limitations of fed policy on containing inflation and the risks of stagflation. Raising rates slows economic activity by constraining demand — whether for final products and services or for upstream equipment and investment to deliver final goods and services. The notion is that raising rates…

3 min read

5 days ago

Bitcoin Public Markets, 5/2/22: $118mm Weekly Fund Outflows, CME 13.6% of Futures Open Interest; Crypto May be Diverging from Equities

We focus attention this week on institutional fund flows, as well as on the futures markets. The week saw $118 mm in fund outflows across our tracked basket of funds, including $91mm redemptions for the BITO Proshares Futures ETF (slide 6, slide 8). BITO redemptions have been 12.5% of peak…

3 min read

5 days ago

The Weekly Hash, 4/28/22: Laying out Feasible Hashrate and Tx Fee Forecasts; Mining IRRs Still Robust for Immersion S19XPs

Our current target Hashrate analysis calls for a back-end loaded growth in network Hashrate to 327EH/s by the end of 2022. Our longer-term estimates suggest 1600 EH/s is feasible by the end of the decade provided BTC price growth supports such expansion. Click here for the full report. Our target…

3 min read

The Weekly Hash, 4/28/22: Laying out Feasible Hashrate and Tx Fee Forecasts; Mining IRRs Still…

Apr 19

Bitcoin and the Public Markets, 4/11/22: Valuation Focus — The Framework Driving Our Bitcoin Reserve Approach to Miners

We focus attention this week on how we view our Bitcoin Mining Reserve framework translating into a valuation heuristic for Bitcoin miners. We point to a generic / anonymized miner with a $1billion market cap as an example. The intent is not to single out a particular miner but to…

3 min read

Bitcoin and the Public Markets, 4/11/22: Valuation Focus — The Framework Driving Our Bitcoin…

Apr 8

The Weekly Hash, 4/4/22: 2022 Hashrate Estimates Unchanged, Hash Spreads Expand; Forecast 8X Cost to Mine 1BTC Over Decade

3 min read

Apr 1

Bitcoin and the Public Markets, 3/28/22: Valuation Focus: We Prefer Spot Bitcoin Over Miners

This report focuses on the valuation implications of the network Hashrate for the public miners. By our assessment, a Petahash/s of hashing capacity is projected to mine 1.424BTC in 2022, and 0.808BTC in 2023 (slide 6). From 1/1/2023 through 12/31/2030, our model projects 1PH/s to mine a total of 2.129BTC…

3 min read

Bitcoin and the Public Markets, 3/28/22: Valuation Focus: We Prefer Spot Bitcoin Over Miners

Mar 28

The Weekly Hash, 3/24/22: Bitcoin Mining Reserve at 2.13BTC / PH/s / Day (2023–2030); 2022 Hash Growth Tracking Model

3 min read

Mar 28

Bitcoin and the Public Markets, 3/21/2022: Valuation Focus: Bitcoin Miners Look Rich Compared to Future BTC Mined vs. Similar Oil & Gold Metrics

Our last Weekly Hash drew attention to our projected growth in network Hashrate as well as daily revenue per PH/s in BTC terms, given our (possibly slightly optimistic) projections for growth in transaction (Tx) fees. Note that long term Hashrate growth is dependent on price appreciation driving adequate revenue per…

3 min read

Mar 21

The Weekly Hash, 3/16/22: Annual Mined BTC Projected to Decay from 1.2BTC / PH/s in 2022 to 0.8BTC in 2023

3 min read

Mar 15

BitOoda’s Crypto Top 20 Analytics

Here is a link to the latest edition of BitOoda’s Crypto Top 20 Analytics report: Crypto Top 20 Analytics, 3/15/22. This report reviews the daily returns for the top 20 tokens of the crypto market, volatility and dominance metrics on BTC and ETH, analytics on the crypto market cap, 30…

1 min read

BitOoda’s Crypto Top 20 Analytics

Here is a link to the latest edition of BitOoda’s Crypto Top 20 Analytics report: Crypto Top 20 Analytics, 3/15/22.

This report reviews the daily returns for the top 20 tokens of the crypto market, volatility and dominance metrics on BTC and ETH, analytics on the crypto market cap, 30…