Hashrate appears to be bottoming following China’s mining ban, with observed Hashrate at 100 EH/s, slightly above the current target Hashrate of ~98EH/s. Last Saturday’s reset brought difficulty down 4.8%. We recently lowered our year-end target Hashrate estimate to ~145EH/s (see here), with an upward bias if electrical infrastructure bottlenecks prove more transient than our model currently indicates.

The market has shifted from being semiconductor constrained to being power / infrastructure constrained. Given the long lead times on the power infrastructure side, we assess it will take several quarters for the infrastructure deployment to be complete. …

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