“Breaking Down This Move” Follow-Up

A week ago today, we wrote the morning report “Breaking down this move”, dissecting the relative performance of the top 13 market cap coins vs. the 17% rally of the entire crypto asset class. To review, the top performers were Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Dash, Cardano, Bitcoin SV, and the laggards were XRP, Tron, Stellar, ETH. We stated, “we would not want to make knee-jerk comments regarding these spreads, only that we have had a large move in the overall space, and keeping track of these leaders and laggards can be very important for future trading opportunities.” Having now settled down after the rally from April 1st, we can see traders are adjusting their portfolios, re-jiggering their positions, via the relative performance of these top cryptos.

This rebalance, or adjustment period over the last 7 days, can show us a few things:

  • BNB rallied ~16% on the April 1st move, in-line with the entire asset class, however has given about half of those gains back over the last week. BNB’s rally is being sold into and that should be noted as weakness.
  • On the other side of the spectrum, EOS and TRON rallied ~21% and ~12% respectively on April 1st, and have continued their strength and momentum higher in the last week gaining another ~10% each. As they were not leaders of the pack originally, they led the way this last week so we wait and see if any resistance forms or if the length is content to hold on strong.
  • Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin, which were the major leaders on April 1st, have not gained or lost market cap over the past 7 days. These coins may have gotten a little ahead of themselves on April 1st, but it is a healthy sign they have not given up any of these gains.
  • Finally, to BTC, the top coin in the asset class and what many view as the proxy for the entire crypto space. BTC rallied 24%, slightly more than the ~17% move of the entire asset class, and has had moderate gains in the prevailing 7 days as well (5%). This we would see as positive sentiment within the space. Our next target resistance is around $6,000 BTC and only if it can punch above these levels can we state the BEAR market is dead.

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